The Magic 2008 Ball

In my previous life as an investment banker I used to publish a quarterly newsletter whose first issue of each New Year predicted the top ten trends that would take place during the subsequent 12 months. I always enjoyed coming up with that list and so, have decided to revive my version of the top ten trends here on this blog. Some of these trends are obvious and are based directly on front-page headlines; others are products of my own observations; and still others are educated-sounding wild guesses. None of these predictions are 100 percent certain to take place, but all I believe represent at least a little snippet of what will be going on in our own lives, in this country, and around the world in the next 12 months.

POLITICS
The Media's Not-So-Straight Talk: The ongoing presidential election has provided the media with a newfound conviction in its own ability to persuade public opinion. Though that belief took a hit in New Hampshire, where Hillary Clinton won the primary despite virtually universal press reports to the contrary, the printed and online press will continue to blur the lines between impartial fact and opinion, potentially damaging their collective credibility, but presenting news that encourages readers to unconsciously adopt the writers’ perspectives.

Courtesy of the Red, White and Blue: The United States’ fall from world dominance (which can, in my opinion, be traced back approximately to the day President Bush was inaugurated) will accelerate for two reasons. First, the weak American dollar means fewer Americans will be spreading their wealth and their gospel across the globe. Second, the election of anti-democratic governments despite a democratic electoral process will punch holes through the aura of supremacy that has surrounded American-style democracy since the end of the Cold War.

The DP on the LD: The recent trend in the United States favoring a moratorium against carrying out capital punishment will continue when the Supreme Court (hopefully) rules that the standard system of lethal injection in the United States is unconstitutional, thereby forcing states to come up with a new protocol. The public will also continue to coalesce in its opposition to executions. Despite the decrease in actually carrying out executions, however, states will continue to sentence individuals to death, a rate which may increase (depending on another upcoming Supreme Court decision) if they are allowed to impose capital punishment for crimes that did not involve killing the victim.

ECONOMY:
The R Word: I hate to say this word, but I think a recession is coming. The crisis that began in the subprime mortgage market and now has begun to spread the larger economy as a whole will continue in the United States, evidenced by rising inflation and lower economic growth. The job market will start tightening up and Ben Bernanke will take a boinking, bopping and beating (all in the name of a good alliteration) by the media, politicians and general public alike.

FASHION:
Hair: Mohawks out, mullets in.

Revival of couture fashion: Spurred in part by growing income inequality as well as the emergence of a new generation of high end fashion designers to replace the old guard, couture fashion will be making a comeback.

TECHNOLOGY:
iPhone Takes Over the World: iPhones and devices with similar interfaces will replace the blackberry and sidekick as the primary communication/entertainment/personal organizer gadgets, thereby getting Steve Jobs that much closer to accomplishing his not-so-subliminal mission to take over the world from Bill Gates.

ENTERTAINMENT:
The Strike is Mightier Than the Pen: Though the writers may eventually win a favorable contract (as they should), the ongoing strike will accelerate the weakening of major studios’ buying power because of independent production companies who managed to continue production during the writers’ strike. The strike will also cause the decline of traditional television programs, to be replaced by much cheaper reality tv programs (some proposals on the table: Dancing On The Stars – the first reality television program broadcast from space; Trading Countries – President Musharraf from Pakistan and Ahmadinejad from Iran trade places to see which leader can destroy the other leader’s country first. Grand prize = the right to take over and destroy Israel).

WORLD:
Increasing Civil Strife in Weak Democracies: Civil strife will increase in already weak democracies, such as Kenya, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkey and southern Iraq. Declining American influence, Europe’s ambivalence towards getting involved in developing countries’ internal affairs given the history of colonialism (which is partly responsible for today’s intra-national conflicts anyway) and China’s indifference to democratic regime change will prevent international pressure from successfully suppressing the civil strife. These factors may ultimately lead to new governments and city-states forming along tribal and ethnic lines.

ENVIRONMENT:
Winning a Green Medal: The 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing will be remembered more for their impact on the environment than for participating athletes’ awe-inspiring achievements on the field of competition. Recycling. Alternate fuels. Lower fuel emissions. Hybrid cars. Reduced pollution. All of these various terms will be at the forefront of countries’ consciousness when this mega-sporting event takes place in one of the most polluted industrialized city’s in the world. The winner of the individual competitions may take home the gold, but if progress is actually accomplished ahead of the Summer Olympics towards sustainable environmental policies responsive to the threat of global warming then the world will stand on the top podium sporting green medals in Beijing.